Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal di Pelabuhan Pantai Baru dengan Metode Sarima Dan Winter’s Exponential Smoothing

Abstrak

This paper discusses the modeling of the number of ship passengers at Pantai Baru Port, Rote Ndao Regency. The number of ship passengers always change fluctuately every year and tends to be more stable than other modes of transportation such as fast boats at Ba'a Port and planes, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore it is necessary to predict the number of passengers, so the result can help the government to determine policies and maintain health protocols at Pantai Baru port, help in providing swab and rapid test kits for passengers, and help ship managers to determine the number of ships’ activity at Pantai Baru port so as not to suffer losses if number of passengers  loaded does not meet the minimum travel costs. Forecasting number of passengers is done by choosing the best method between the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method and Winter's Exponential Smoothing method because it is indicated that the number of ship passengers is influenced by data trends and seasonal patterns. The best SARIMA method obtained is SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)¹² and best Winter's Exponential Smoothing method is the multiplicative model with alpha 0.8, beta 0.1, and gamma 0.1 . Based on the MSE comparison value, model SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)¹² is more suitable than Winter’s Exponential Smoothing method for predicting the number of ship passengers at Pantai Baru Port. Then, by using model SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)¹² to predicting the number of ship passengers at Pantai Baru Port for the next 12 months.